Posted: 25 Jan, 2017

The BP Energy Outlook 2017 identifies long-term energy trends, building on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and then projections for world energy markets to 2035, taking account of the potential evolution of the world economy, policy, and technology.

Bob Dudley, group chief executive and Spencer Dale, group chief economist, launched the 2017 BP Energy Outlook today, Wednesday, January 25. Mr.Dale shared BP’s Outlook for the global landscape over the next 20 years, highlighting some of the key issues that raises, and explored possible alternative outcomes.

“The main story in this year's Energy Outlook is about the energy transition that is taking place and is likely to continue to take place over the next 20 years. On the demand side, there's a shift in the pattern of demand, away from the US and Europe to fast-growing Asian markets. On the supply side, the story is one of a continuing shift in the fuel mix towards lower carbon fuels.” Spencer Dale, group chief economist.

In the Outlook's base case, the world’s economy almost doubles in size over the Outlook period, driven by fast-growing emerging economies, as more than two billion people are lifted from low incomes. This rising prosperity drives an increase in global energy demand, although the extent of this growth is substantially offset by rapid gains in energy efficiency. Energy demand increases by only around 30% - around a third as much as the expected growth in the global economy.

The fuel mix continues to adjust: although fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy, renewables, together with nuclear and hydro energy, provide half of the additional energy required out to 2035. Natural gas is expected to grow faster than oil or coal, helped by the rapid growth of liquefied natural gas increasing the accessibility of gas across the globe.

The most likely path sees carbon emissions from energy continuing to increase, indicating the need for further policy action and raising important choices and opportunities for our industry.

Highlights

  1. Expect a gradual decarbonization of the energy industry. Natural gas demand will grow at about 1.6% per year helped by rapid growth in demand for LNG. Demand for oil will only grow at an estimated 0.6% per year.
  2. Energy demands will increase, moderated by technological advances in fuel efficiency such as increased efficiency in internal combustion engines and to a lesser extent more electric cars. Total energy demand will grow at 1.3% per year. The abundant supply of oil will enable prosperity in rising countries like Asia. By 2035 as much as 80% of the demand for energy will come form the power sector. Most of the demand in the future for oil will come for its use in the manufacture of other products such as plastics.
  3. Carbon emissions will slow sharply compared to the last 20 years. Despite this slowdown they will increased overall. More policy is needed for carbon emissions.

Source: BP Energy Outlook – 2017 Edition